
Even if you aren’t among those who normally make New
Year’s resolutions—not to mention keeping them—making resolutions and
sticking to them can be an effective path to better portfolio
performance.
Although the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index and
other major equity indexes have been rallying in recent months, 2005 was
a year that filled many investors with anxiety. Between the United
States’ record budget and trade deficits and the uncertainty arising
from the many ongoing geopolitical threats, many investors spent the
year fretting over their returns.
In the face of some or all of these factors, you
could be thinking of adjusting your portfolio to improve its
performance. In the process of doing so, you may inadvertently take on
more risk than is appropriate for you. In order to avoid this, consider
adopting the following resolutions as you consider your year-end
strategy:
Allocate your assets among bonds, stocks,
money market instruments, and funds in proportions that reflect the
amount of risk necessary to achieve your goals. In some cases, that may
mean that portfolios don’t need to be or shouldn’t be more conservative
‘just because’ someone is older. It should really be about allocating
for your particular goals and needs, not ‘just because’ you are at a
certain age or spending level. Disregard recommendations of all-purpose
model portfolios’ asset allocations. They may indicate how various
investment strategists feel about the near-term attractiveness of stocks
and bonds but weren’t offered with your particular investment goals and
risk tolerance in mind. (Do consider so-called lifestyle or lifecycle
funds. If you don’t have the time or inclination to do the necessary
initial portfolio construction, disciplined re-balancing and continuous
re-alignment as you approach your goal, these will perform these
functions.)
Have realistic expectations of performance.
The years of exceptional annual returns for stocks, on the average, are
a memory now. Annual returns averaging below the long-term average of
about 10 percent annually seem more likely in the foreseeable future.
Whatever they are, the average returns for balanced portfolios are
likely to be single-digit.
Resolve to maximize your net returns by
holding down (a) excessive commissions when buying or selling individual
securities and (b) excessive expenses when investing in mutual funds.
When investing in taxable accounts, be mindful of the tax consequences
of owning mutual funds that make large taxable distributions of realized
short- and long-term capital gains. Recent research published in the
Journal of Financial Planning suggests that funds with low turnover
and long-term capital gains still belong in taxable accounts and that
funds that have large amounts of short-term gains distributions should
be placed in retirement accounts, such as IRAs, 401(k)s, or other
tax-deferred accounts.
When investing for income, resist the temptation
of chasing high yields. Higher yields are generally associated with
higher risk, and with some investments what appears to be yield may
actually be a return of capital.
Don’t forget bond funds. Tax-exempt state or
local government bonds or “municipal” bond funds, whose yields are
usually lower than those of taxable issues of comparable credit quality
and maturity, may pay you more than you’d have left after taxes when
investing in the comparable taxable securities. Do the math: compare
your prospective after-tax income from the taxable securities with what
you’d get from the tax-exempts.
Accept that there is no shortcut to mutual fund
selection. Whether you do it or an adviser does it for you, funds
have to be studied—primarily in funds’ own, SEC-mandated literature—to
determine their suitability. Data indicating superior past
performance—which funds must report in accordance with SEC regulations
and update periodically—don’t assure you of superior future performance.
Neither do ratings, such as the 5-star ratings for risk-adjusted
performance calculated by Morningstar. They may provide you an
additional dimension of past performance, but, as Morningstar has long
reminded investors, they don’t have predictive value. Such data
constitute the beginning, not the end, of the selection process,
indicating which funds’ literature you might study.
Don’t be too impressed by high absolute returns.
Compare past performance data for an equity fund with performance data
for the same periods for the S&P, Russell, or other index—for the broad
stock market, for large or small companies’ stocks, for growth or value
stocks, and so on—which the fund management has chosen as its benchmark.
You may also compare them with data for peer funds computed by Lipper or
Morningstar. By focusing on relative returns, such comparisons tell you
whether the fund has performed as well as could be expected, better, or
worse, given the stocks it owns.
Always remember that stocks and bonds—and the
funds that own them—are long-term investments, requiring patience
and the ability to ride out market volatility. Stocks and stock funds
are unlikely to be, as magazine covers will have you believe, “the 10
(whatever) you must own in 2006.”
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December 2005 — This column is produced by the Financial Planning Association, the
membership organization for the financial planning community.